#include <iostream>
#include <vector>
#include <cmath>
#include <algorithm>
#include <iomanip>
#include <tuple>
using namespace std;
using Portfolio = vector<int>; // weights in percent, size = 6
double percentile15(vector<double>& data) {
sort(data.begin(), data.end());
size_t index = static_cast<size_t>(floor(0.15 * data.size()));
if (index >= data.size()) index = data.size() - 1;
return data[index];
}
double lumpSumCAGR(const vector<double>& returns) {
double compound = 1.0;
for (double r : returns) {
compound *= (1.0 + r);
}
return pow(compound, 1.0 / returns.size()) - 1.0;
}
double portfolioReturn(const vector<vector<double>>& assets, const Portfolio& weights, int year) {
double result = 0.0;
for (int i = 0; i < weights.size(); ++i) {
result += (weights[i] / 100.0) * assets[i][year];
}
return result;
}
void generatePortfolios(vector<Portfolio>& portfolios, Portfolio current, int pos, int totalWeight, int maxAssets) {
if (pos == current.size()) {
if (totalWeight == 100) {
int nonZero = count_if(current.begin(), current.end(), [](int w) { return w > 0; });
if (nonZero <= maxAssets) {
portfolios.push_back(current);
}
}
return;
}
for (int w = 0; w <= 100 - totalWeight; w += 5) {
current[pos] = w;
generatePortfolios(portfolios, current, pos + 1, totalWeight + w, maxAssets);
}
}
int main() {
const int numAssets = 6;
const int maxAssets = 3;
const int step = 5;
int duration = 15;
// Asset names (add a 6th name)
vector<string> assetNames = {"scv60Lcg15", "scv95", "vti", "11all", "33gld", "lcbtilted"};
// Add return vectors for 6 assets
vector<vector<double>> assets = {
// Asset 1
{-0.04,0.14,0.15,-0.14,-0.19,0.26,0.28,0.04,0.08,0.28,0.08,-0.06,0.24,0.22,-0.01,0.26,0.14,-0.02,0.14,0.16,
-0.16,0.29,0.15,0.18,-0.03,0.20,0.13,0.20,0.02,0.08,-0.04,0.04,-0.07,0.33,0.12,0.06,0.15,0.01,-0.26,0.31,
0.22,-0.03,0.15,0.19,0.08,-0.06,0.16,0.13,-0.11,0.21,0.13,0.12,-0.18,0.15,0.12},
// Asset 2
{-0.03,0.13,0.06,-0.29,-0.31,0.43,0.46,0.08,0.07,0.21,0.12,0.06,0.31,0.38,0.02,0.31,0.12,-0.08,0.23,0.14,
-0.22,0.37,0.24,0.19,-0.02,0.24,0.17,0.31,-0.06,0.02,0.04,0.11,-0.13,0.41,0.17,0.04,0.15,-0.09,-0.32,0.33,
0.23,-0.06,0.18,0.32,0.09,-0.06,0.23,0.09,-0.15,0.20,0.03,0.19,-0.16,0.11,0.08},
// Asset 3
{-0.02,0.11,0.12,-0.25,-0.36,0.30,0.21,-0.11,-0.01,0.05,0.16,-0.11,0.19,0.19,0.01,0.28,0.15,-0.02,0.12,0.24,
-0.10,0.29,0.06,0.08,-0.01,0.34,0.19,0.30,0.24,0.19,-0.13,-0.09,-0.25,0.30,0.08,0.02,0.12,0.01,-0.37,0.26,
0.16,-0.02,0.14,0.31,0.12,0.00,0.11,0.19,-0.07,0.28,0.19,0.18,-0.24,0.22,0.20},
// Asset 4
{-0.02,0.12,0.14,-0.13,-0.19,0.22,0.26,0.04,0.06,0.19,0.07,-0.07,0.20,0.20,0.03,0.26,0.19,0.00,0.14,0.15,
-0.16,0.24,0.10,0.20,-0.02,0.19,0.12,0.17,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.02,-0.06,0.32,0.14,0.07,0.17,-0.01,-0.25,0.25,
0.20,0.00,0.14,0.15,0.11,-0.04,0.13,0.12,-0.10,0.20,0.07,0.12,-0.19,0.10,0.08},
// Asset 5
{-0.01,0.11,0.19,0.03,-0.05,0.13,0.23,0.07,0.10,0.44,0.08,-0.13,0.20,0.14,-0.04,0.19,0.16,0.02,0.06,0.08,
-0.15,0.17,0.08,0.16,-0.03,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.00,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.30,0.11,0.07,0.19,0.03,-0.21,0.25,
0.23,0.00,0.13,0.08,0.09,-0.06,0.13,0.10,-0.08,0.20,0.10,0.11,-0.14,0.11,0.14},
// Asset 6
// Asset 6
{-0.03, 0.13, 0.12, -0.22, -0.30, 0.25, 0.24, -0.02, 0.00, 0.07, 0.08, -0.09, 0.14, 0.20, 0.07, 0.26, 0.15, -0.02, 0.16, 0.24,
-0.13, 0.33, 0.10, 0.21, -0.03, 0.22, 0.16, 0.21, 0.05, 0.15, -0.05, -0.02, -0.12, 0.32, 0.14, 0.08, 0.17, 0.02, -0.32, 0.29,
0.17, -0.01, 0.14, 0.17, 0.13, -0.03, 0.11, 0.16, -0.09, 0.23, 0.11, 0.14, -0.24, 0.14, 0.11}
};
for (duration = 1; duration <= 31; duration += 2) {
cout << "----------\n----------\nDuration: \t " << duration << "\n--------------------\n";
int numYears = assets[0].size();
vector<Portfolio> portfolios;
generatePortfolios(portfolios, Portfolio(numAssets, 0), 0, 0, maxAssets);
vector<tuple<Portfolio, double>> portfolioResults;
for (const Portfolio& p : portfolios) {
vector<double> cagrList;
for (int start = 0; start <= numYears - duration; ++start) {
vector<double> subReturns;
for (int i = 0; i < duration; ++i) {
double portRet = portfolioReturn(assets, p, start + i);
subReturns.push_back(portRet);
}
double cagr = lumpSumCAGR(subReturns);
cagrList.push_back(cagr);
}
double bottom15 = percentile15(cagrList);
portfolioResults.emplace_back(p, bottom15);
}
sort(portfolioResults.begin(), portfolioResults.end(),
[](const auto& a, const auto& b) {
return get<1>(a) > get<1>(b);
});
cout << fixed << setprecision(2);
for (int i = 0; i < 2 && i < portfolioResults.size(); ++i) {
auto [weights, cagr] = portfolioResults[i];
cout << "Portfolio " << i + 1 << ":\n";
for (int j = 0; j < numAssets; ++j) {
if (weights[j] > 0)
cout << " " << assetNames[j] << ": " << weights[j] << "%\n";
}
cout << " Bottom 15th Percentile CAGR: " << cagr * 100 << "%\n\n";
}
}
return 0;
}
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